Asking The Not At All Reactive or Premature Question: Are The Leafs Actually Good??

 

The Leafs started the season suffering a 1-0 shutout loss to the Montreal Canadiens, however, have now rattled off consecutive wins against the New Jersey Devils & the Pittsburgh Penguins. So now it’s time to ask the, not at all reactive or premature, question of:

Are the Leafs actually good?!

Let’s take a little look at some of the numbers shall we? In the first game of the season, the Leafs were goalied. Nothing more. Nothing less. Sammy Montembault was on top of his game, and honestly? Kudos to the Team Canada hopeful. Can’t knock that performance at all. What we can do, is take away the positives from this game. The Leafs outshot the Habs 48-27. The Leafs also dominated the On-Ice Shot Attempts as well, winning that by a whopping 104-48. The Leafs also had roughly 20 shots at, or below the hashmarks, highlighting the way new coach Craig Berube wants them to play.

In the 2^nd game, it was a little closer than the score may lead people to believe, the Leafs were just more opportunistic/got better goaltending from the rookie Dennis Hildeby. The shots were 23-22 for New Jersey. The Leafs were crushed in the On Ice Shot attempts, however, the Leafs blocked 27 shots and cleared the crease quite well allowed Hildeby good lines of sight and opportunity to react if the puck was in close. The Devils also had roughly 10 shots that would be considered low/medium danger once again show casing the new and improved D and defensive minded attitude the players have.

Game 3 the Leafs one again outshot their opponents, this time 32-23, 14 of which were again from the hashmarks or lower, including 3 of their 4 goals. Of the shots they surrendered, most of them were from the perimeter or from deep which were not threatening whatsoever. Even one of the goals would have likely been just a low danger shot if not for a weird play/defensive lapse that allowed Letang to walk in 10 feet and rip a bomb without pressure. The Pens actually threw more shots towards the net, out-chancing the Leafs 58-51, 17 of which were blocked.

Leading the way in those games, defensively, are:

Chris Tanev (10 blocks), Jack McCabe (9 blocks, 7 hits), Morgan Rielly (7 blocks), Auston Matthews/Pontus Holmberg (4 blocks, 1 hit), Mitch Marner (6tk, 1gv)

Yes, the offense isn’t quite there (will get into that next), but the attitude of sacrificing the body, preventing quality shots & limiting dangerous scoring chance is refreshing to say the least. This will hopefully lead to longer term/sustained success and maybe not completely gassing out the goalies before the end of the season.

As far as advance stats go, things are still promising looking. I know not everyone likes or accepts these stats, but they are a piece of the puzzle and shows how Toronto can be even better than what they are right now, when things swing back to normal for a few players.

Auston Matthews for example currently has an expected goals of 2.2 while rocking an expected shooting percentage of 9.1 and getting 13 shots/60. Matthews alone having those numbers to where he typically lives means the Leafs are probably 3-0-0 to start the season, and Matthews alone getting those numbers back to where they normally are/will end up being leaves room for the Leafs to continue rolling in the next couple of games. Guys like OEL, Max Domi, Pontus Holmberg & Morgan Rielly are all producting well below their career average in terms of expected goals. The Leafs also only have 7 players who are below 50% in terms of On Ice Shot Attempts in Lorentz, Holmberg, McMann, Tanev, Timmins, Benoit & Kampf. 3 or 4 of those will likely trend towards helping tilt the ice positively given the amount the shoot and pressure offensively while only one guy stands out above 50% that likely will dip below eventually in Ryan Reaves who currently sits tied with Auston Matthews at 67% (Of course it’s 67).

Now lets take a quick look into the goalie numbers. So far

Anthony Stolarz, 1-1-0, .940 sv%, 1.54 GAA, 2QS, 2.2 GSAA.

Dennis Hildeby – 1-0-0, .913 sv%, 2.02 GAA, 1QS, 0.5 GSAA.

Stolarz, early on, has come as advertised by the media and Panther Fans alike. He is big, athletic, positionally sound & never seems to really give up a stinker or back breaker like MANY previous goalies. Obviously, those numbers are going to come down, but even if he can give .910-.920 save percentage, the Leafs will win a LOT of games with him in net.

Hildeby, in my opinion, is the future of this club and showed his mettle against the Devils, especially in the 3^rd period. It’s a lot to expect Hildeby to get thrown into 20+ games this year, so don’t expect to see that, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get into at least 10, depending on the health of Woll. Murray likely is going to see some ice time over Hildeby, but his start in the AHL the other night leaves a lot to be desired. There’s a real chance Hildeby climbs the ranks to #3 or even #2 after this season. Again, depending on the health and play of himself, Murray & most importantly Woll.

Joe Woll is the biggest question mark in net this season. The 26 year old has proven that he is insanely talented and has the ability to steal games/series, but has yet to prove to be consistently reliable due to his overwhelming injury history. IF he can get, and stay, healthy, he could easily put himself into a position where he’s the #1 goalie, or at least a very solid 1a-1b goalie. He’s proven he can (see last years playoffs). If he can’t.. then there’s reason to believe he won’t be in the long-term future of the team & eventually gets supplanted by Hildeby.

Overall, Given their talent level, their lower statistical numbers (both advanced and not) & a new system that is trying out different things, there lot of reasons to be optimistic that the Leafs can continue to dominate play. This is the arguably the deepest roster the Leafs have had in the entire Matthews Era, so if the big boys go a little cold, there’s not a real feeling of panic that the bottom 6 can’t step up. All of that & the hope/real likelihood they can manage to get even average goaltending from all their goalies, there’s plenty of reasons to beLEAF that they could be primed to go on a little bit of a run here early in the season. If Chief and Savard can manage to get the powerplay clicking, the Leafs could become a real big problem in the Atlantic, Eastern Conference, as well as the whole NHL. Time will tell.

But to answer the question that the title asks! Yes, the Leafs are, in fact, VERY good.

GLG! 🔵

Leafs Guy