10 Game Check In: The Highs, The Lows & The In-between.

 

10 game check in shall we? The Leafs are no strangers to starting the season slowly, or poorly for that matter. This start, has felt eerily similar, yet incredibly different than years past. The have dominated play at times, and have steamrolled teams. They have also been the Leafs and have been simply “meh” several times, especially in some games that should have mattered more than others. They are still a +.500 team with a very clear ability to be even better than what they’ve shown so far this season, so lets take a look at some of the highs, and lows, of the first 10 games this season. Keep in mind, this is mostly all my opinion with some facts/stats thrown about.

First 10 prediction: 6-3-1

Actual first 10: 5-4-1

Not super far off of the prediction I set for myself around this team, however, I feel like their actual record should be better than both my prediction as well as their actual record.

Highs!

The Offseason Acquisitions:

Brad Treliving made 4-5 notable signings this offseason and let me tell you, they have been as advertised, or even more so. Lets start with Anthony Stolarz. The 6’7 netminder was signed to be a VERY good 1B to Joseph Woll. Turns out he’s just a VERY good starter who, quite possibly, has the save of the season already. With Woll down to start the season, Stollie The Goalie has posted a very respectable 4-2-1 record with a .916 save percentage (bogged down HEAVY by last nights game where he still managed to make some very timely saves) & a 2.45GAA. That’s substantially better than some of the numbers the Leafs have got in recent years and if he can just maintain those numbers, the Leafs should be more than fine with him in net.

Shot blocking, Passion having, toothless smiling, HERO Chris Tanev was arguably their most prized signing this off-season and fans were drooling over his pairing with Morgan Rielly. Tanev has gotten off the start that everyone sort of expected of him. He hasn’t done more, and he has not done less, yet everyone LOVES this guy. Why? His willingness to sacrifice himself for the greater good. He is currently averaging 3.8 blocks per game, and I don’t know if many of you know this.. Those shots HURT. While he only has 2 assists, his ability to move the puck without panicking as well as be that stay at home Dman that allows Rielly to focus more on the offensive side of his game, has been worth every single penny they used for him.

OEL. What’s there to say about this guy? A lot of fans HATED this deal. I, myself, was super skeptical. Turns out, he’s pretty damn good! The smooth skating D has gotten off to a blistering start with the Leafs posting 1 goal, 5 assists and 6 points in the 10 games played, he has supplanted Morgan Rielly on the top PP line, he has been excellent 5v5 with whoever he is paired with & has a little edge of nastiness I did not know he had! He has quickly become a fan favourite and if he continunes this play, there’s no reason to suggest anything will change any time soon.

Lastly, there’s New PJ Boy Steven Lorentz, and Max Pacioretty! Lorentz hits everything that moves, is a dog on a bone when it comes to forechecking and helped establish what looked/looks like the best 4^th line in the 1634 Era. Lorentz has been so loved by fans, and the Leafs brass agree. To the point where there speculation that as soon as it’s a possibility, he will be resigned to a new deal. Patches on the other hand, like OEL, came in and people were not a fan. This guy is 36, beyond injury prone and had seemingly lost his scoring touch. Guess what? He has not.. In 7 games, Patches has posted 2 goals and 3 assists while helping the 2^nd line with JT and Willy look at their best. Now I don’t think he’s going to maintain the 22 goal, 56 point pace that points him on, but even if he can be a 15-15, or a 20-15 guy, that’s more than enough value out of him and that deal. We shall see what happens with him the rest of the way, as he is likely to get load managed a lot during the regular season, and rightfully so.

Matthew Knies:

Auston Matthew.. Knies?! Kidding, obviously. Matty Ice has finally found that other gear it seems. A big, strong, determined power forward with supreme finishing ability. He currently sits tied with JT for 2^nd on the team in goals with 5, however, that shooting percentage is a tad unsustainable at 20%. Knies is shooting it more, and that shooting % is likely to go down, which means his 41 goal pace probably dips to a 25-30 goal pace, and he likely ends the season somewhere in there as well, which is plenty fine for a 22 year old sophomore who is still developing. The Leafs need to dig in and get this kid signed before that number jumps even further. 8x6 anyone??

John Tavares:

But.. but.. he’s washed! Let me stop you right there and say this: Shut up! Tavares is far from washed. He is a fantastic, aging centre, who, probably, is going to start having more off games than we’re used to. Does that matter? No. We’re talking about a perennial 30+ goal scorer with nasty hands in tight who had the worst shooting percentage of his career last season, AND STILL SCORED 29 GOALS! After his performance last night, he now sits at 5 goals, 4 assists and 9 points in name games this season.  15 goals, 14 assists and 29 points in his last 28 games dating back to last season while winning basically 60% of his draws, throwing some hits and winning most of the board battles in he’s in. Slowing down? Sure. Washed? No. My advice is stop moaning about this guy because there’s a VERY good chance he’s resigned this season and spends the rest of his career with the Leafs, obviously at a substantially lower cap hit.

HM: William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly, Max Domi

Lows…

Timothy Liljegren:

This one is a bit of a head scratcher for many, myself included. 25 years old, smooth skating, great breakout passing, offensive Dman. Why is he not in the lineup? Well, who is he going to take out? This Dcore FINALLY has an identity and they’ve looked the best they ever have. They’re big, strong on the puck, they hit & block and most importantly, they battle their asses off. Liljegren has clearly been bumped down the depth chart in favor of early season surprises Conor Timmins & Philippe Myers. There isn’t much to say here, he isn’t well liked clearly & has not done much to change that when given the chance, though it’s only been 1 game this year. I just don’t see much of a spot for him especially considering Hakanpaa leapfrogs him when he’s healthy as well. Would not surprise me much to see a deal in the next month or so to give him a chance elsewhere as well as freeing up some much-needed cap space.

David Kampf:

Now I’m not expecting anything crazy out of Kampf, a 8-10 goal, 15-20 point while winning a lot of draws and being super effective on the PK and on the 4^th line. So far, Kampf has been a cardio merchant and has even gotten to the point that he’s been healthy scratched. He routinely gets caved in when he’s on the ice, his defensive play has been lacking and for the 2^nd straight year, his TOI has dipped by at least 2 mins. For 2.4 mill a year, that’s not good enough. If he WANTS to be a Leaf, that needs to improve. If the Leafs want him, they need to get something extra out of him, or it’s time to move on.

The Powerplay:

Awful. Just awful. This is a group of players who are consider some of the best players in the world, and when they’re on the ice together, WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS ONE LESS PLAYER, they turn into overthinking, overpassing, overdoing idiots. For lack of a better term. They are 3-33! The best goal scorer in the world, with one of the best passers in the world, coupled with a good net front presence, a multiple time 40 goal scorer and a Dman who can throw shots on net with ease.. Why is it not working? Well.. they seem to look for the highlight reel pass, highlight reel goal, highlight reel dangle that would make the top 10 on TSN for years to come rather than just simply putting it on the net and going after it. A prime example of this is the WIDE open net that Marner passed up on without even looking because he wanted Matthews to get the puck for a “prettier” goal. If they want this to improve they need a better means of gaining the zone, getting control and in the words of Steven Dangle, “GO TO THE NET!”.

3-33 man… that’s simply unacceptable.

HM: Nicolas Robertson, Pontus Holmberg

 

The In-between

Auston Matthews:

Shots are still coming in bunch with a league leading 47 so far. The issue is, he has hit the post about 6 times, has been robbed about 4 times & has been beyond snake bitten. 4 goals while shooting a career low 8.5%. That’s all clearly going to change. That shooting% is going to come up, and once it does, the goals will drop like flies. Is he going to push for another 60-70 goal season? Probably not at this point, but a 50+ goal, 90-100 point season is still very possible. He’s also still blocking a ton of shots and playing well defensively, that game breaking goal against Boston aside. Matthews will be fine, it’s just frustrating to see him not be a world beater right out of the gate like we are used to.

Bobby McMann:

McMann has had moments where he’s shown his game breaking shot and determination, but he’s also given up on plays, turned the puck over and gotten flat and lazy on the backcheck. 3 goals with 1 assist is very helpful depth scoring, very good for the amount of money he costs & he can help bolster any line he is one with his forecheck and finishing ability, but he still has to work on the giveaways, turnovers & lazy plays at times. Overall not concern with him this year.

 

Overall, this team still seems primed to do some damage and I don’t think a “slow” start is going to change my mind on this. I fully believe Berube is going to get them to a place where the games/periods off will become less and less, Savard will sort the PP issues out & the players with a slow start will rebound heavily. This is a very talented team with a coach that seems to be the best fit for this specific team. Top of the division/conference/league is not out of the question whatsoever.

In their next stretch of 10, they play on the road 7 times against Kraken, Bruins, Habs, Sens, Wings, Knights and Oilers. They have 3 home games where the Blues, Wild & Caps all visit the SBA. 6 of these games will be played on back to backs as well, meaning we will likely see a 7-3 or 6-4 split in goal between Stollie and Woll.

Next check in will be at the 20-game mark! Who changes? Who stays? Will there be any trades? Will the Leafs heat up, or will they slump? It’ll be a fun little stretch before then. Lets all enjoy it, shall we?

*Next 10 predictions: 6-1-3. This would put them 11-5-4 on the season*

Leafs Guy!