10 Game Check-In: The Highs, The Lows & The In-Betweens. Games 11-20.

 

Highs:

Defence

McCabe-Tanev:

Since being put together, these guys have become an absolute force on the blueline. Teams have been effectively shut down basically every game. The Leafs are 6^th in the League for Goals Against and having a pairing like this is a big reason for that. If they can continue to eat hard minutes coupled with the goalies being absolute STUDS between the pipes, there’s real reason to believe that this low goals against trend could/will continue.

Core 4 without Matthews

John Tavares:

JT has found the fountain of youth. He has turned back the clock this season, specifically in this stretch where Matthews has been injured, stepping up into the #1 centre spot, continuing to win the majority of his draws, play great defensively, show some jam that feels like we have never seen, or have not seen in a while (Thanks Berube) & casually drop 4 goals & 8 points while doing so.

Maybe the Amulet works…

Mitch Marner

Marns has dialed in & turned back into one of the greatest wingers in the world (not that he truly left) & shouldered a heavy load in Matthews’ absence. Marner has continued the strong defensive play that he we all know well. Marner turned it on offenseively dropping 4 goals, 12 points sans Matthews. Marner specifically took over in the 3-2 OTW against Edmonton. In a game that featured McDavid and Draisiatl and were, rightfully, talked about, Marner decided that he wanted to assert himself in that conversation and show why he is one of the best players in the league singlehandedly showing up the two aforementioned stars by stealing a puck on a socring chance and going the entire length of the ice & dropping a filthy GWG, which also happened to be his 200^th of his career. He then followed that up with another dominating 2 way performance dropping 2 apples as well helping the Leafs route the Knights with basically the Marlies as support.

12.5x8, anyone??

William Nylander:

There isn’t much to be said that already hasn’t been said about Willy. This guy always shows up when it matters, and he’s continued that trend yet again with Papi out. Snizzdaddy (IYKYK) has dropped 4 goals, three of which were on the slumping PP & 9 points during this time. He has himself firmly in the race for the Rocket, 2 behind the tied leaders. What needs to be said most about Willy is his 2 way play where he’s almost become underrated in a sense. Yes he needs a kick in the ass some games, and yes he has made some smaller errors, but this seems to be happening less and less under Berube, specifically this stretch without 34.

Morgan Rielly:

 Rielly has had a quietly great season so far, and this stretch without Matthews has not done anything to suggest this is going to stop. We all know Rielly does great with defensive Dmen and we were all drooling over him being with Tanev, but red flags began to raise when McCabe-Tanev became dynamite together. Rielly switched to playing with OEL, which didn’t look great  at first, and the underlying numbers suggested that they probably weren’t the best pairing, but his offensive production continued. 1 goals, 7 points so far during the games where Matthews has been out, and has looked quite good with both Hakanpaa and Benny. Basically, Rielly needs a consistent partner, and this partner needs to be a shutdown D, so Haks & Benny may not be your stereotypical top line D, but when put with someone like Rielly, who has basically been “dropped” to “line 2” with the emergence of McCabe-Tanev, they’re going to win their minutes and allow for Rielly to continue to flourish yet again. A 10+ goal, 50-60 point season (his current pace) will be easily attainable, if not passable at this rate.

Goalies (last 10)

The goalies over the last 10 have been nothing short of dominant. A combination of their skill as well as the team game in front of them has lead to a great stretch which has vaulted the Leafs into 1^st place. Joseph “Brick” Woll went a fantastic 4-1-0 with a .937 & sporting 1 shutout. The craziest thing about Woll is that he’s kind of been inconsistent. World beating 1 game followed up by a somewhat mid performance following the next. It’s just that when he is on, he seemingly cannot be beat. If he can find a way to be consistent, he could push Stolarz for the #1 job, or form a Swayman/Ullmark type tandem. I would not complain either way. Speaking of Stollie the Goalie, Stolarz over the last 10 has been no slouch either, posting a tidy little 3-1-1 record with a stunning .942 save percentage also sporting a shutout. Stollie has been so good to start that he has even been given some Vezina love by credentialed people across the league (placed 6^th in an NHL.com article). IMO, maybe a touch biased, he should be given more love for the start he’s had, but he’s a Leaf now and we all know that means for players, goalies and coaches alike. Slight love for when it’s good, rain of hellfire if it’s going bad. Such is life. We love both Stollie and Wollie & even if they don’t get the respect they deserve, we’ll happily allow them to be the backbone of this team for as long as they want to.

The Kids: (Minten, Grebenkin, Steeves)

Very quickly need to just give the youngins some love. Steeves, Grebenkin & Minten have all come up and, although briefly, given some spark & hope into the bottom 6. Steeves has played 2 games pretty much exclusively on line 4, but has been a hound on the forecheck and thrown the body around. Minten in his 1^st game up nets his 1^st goal (GWG btw!) and looked fantastic as the 3C between Grebenkin & Lorentz/Robertson. I don’t think he’ll be the solution at 3C, but if, BIG if, he can, it frees the Leafs up to spend on/look to improve elsewhere (Wings are kinda meh right now..). Now Grebenkin, aka Russian Tucker or Grebhanson looked like an absolute DAWG out there. He did not back down from anyone, he was always skating hard where he broke up & made some plays. He threw some heavy (maybe questionable) hits & was, for lack of a better term, a little shit disturber on the ice. He definitely earned an extra look or two, especially with the injuries, and I’m kind of excited to see what he can bring to the table.

Lows:

Patches Injury:

Patches injury could not have happened at a worse time, both for him personally, as well as the Leafs. Patches was amid recovering some of the health he had lost in previous seasons & was sort of reinventing himself on a line with JT & Willy. Patches was producing, being a physical presence & becoming a fan favourite. I don’t doubt that will continue when he comes back, but there’s always a chance that an injury slows anyone down when they return. There’s also a chance that he picks up right where he left off. It just sucks with the unknown surrounding what will happen from a team standpoint, but also how it plays out for him personally after everything he has gone through.

Depth Scoring

I feel like this goes without saying. There was a stretch where there was a combined 1 goal, 6 assists between Kampf, Holmberg, Reaves, Robertson & Dewar. On the season AS A WHOLE.. Add in an obviously hurt/struggling Max Domi who has only produced 6 assists thus far. That’s far from a recipe for success. Now Holmberg had added his first goal and has added another assist, but outside of that, there hasn’t been much uptick. Reavo being suspended, Domi & Kampf being out is going to give some of the kids a chance to add some life into the bottom 6 (1 game in already and it looks very positive). Time will tell what happens with the bottom 6, but there needs to be some extra life from it sooner than later.

 

In-Between:

Matthews' Injury

Injuries suck. Star injuries are worse. Losing a player who is the best goal scorer on the planet and a perennially MVP threat causes a severe existential crisis. Now the ONLY good thing about this is that the timing of the injury is during the quietest stretch that I can remember the Leafs ever having. Giving him plenty of time off, missing potentially less games than if this were to happen in December or down the stretch of the season & not having to worry about rushing him back can’t be understated. Get

Robertson:

I like this kid. I really do. Probably more than most, but he’s just not doing enough right now. Yes, he’s trying. Yes, he’s working hard. He’s also not putting anything into the net & is seemingly easily pushed off the puck more often than not. He has that game breaking goal scoring skill when he's going. 15-20 goal 82 game pace over his career so far, but right now, when players start getting healthy, there’s not much reason to keep him in the lineup over someone like Steeves, and maybe Nylander (depends on how he does as well). It sucks because I think he’s more of the player he was last season than the one this season, but at this rate, what else can you do? He's going to get some top 6 minutes here starting tonight (Sunday, Nov 24th vs Utah), so that could prove positive for him. If he doesn't show off what he can do it begs a beg question: With that potential there, but can you continue to keep him in the lineup with a 5 goal/point pace because he COULD improve? That’s a real risky bet if others continue to/are showing more in 5-10 games time..

Recap & The Next 10: Games 21-30.

In my last little write up, I predicted that they would go 6-1-3 & they proved me wrong by going out and doing even better! They went and dropped a 7-2-1 stretch which has them sitting 12-6-2 & placed them in 1^st Place in the Atlantic!

In their next 10, they have 5 on the road and 5 at home with only one back to back, which sees them hosting the Caps at home then visiting Dubas, Crosby & the Pens at home. I felt I was being a tad optimistic with my last predictions and they blew me out of the water, so I’m going to be a little more reserved with this one because there is bound to be some dip at some point (maybe their history has me jaded a touch). My prediction for the next 10 is 5-2-3, which would place them at 17-8-5 after 30, which SHOULD keep them in 1^st in the Atlantic & could push them into a race for the Conference Leader as well. If the defensive play keeps going the way it has, the goaltending stays steady & the offense can add some more with Matthews as well as maybe Knies & Domi returning sooner than later, hopefully on the same line, The Leafs could continue to climb in the standings or at the very least stand pat where they currently are.

10 game ago I said these guys looked and felt different. 10 games later, I’m saying the same thing. These guys look hungry. They look angry. The look like they’re having a blast standing up and battling with one another each game. Treliving and Berube have transformed this team from an overachieving regular season/fancy play machine that had no spark and felt unlikeable into a team that, while still continuing to preform well in the regular season, is loveable for fans & at least looks like they care about each other & recognise they need to battle each night as a team prepping for the grind of the playoffs. 62 games remaining & a lot could change, but I’m going to try to stand firm with The Passion & beLeaf that this team IS different this year.

GO LEAFS GO!

Leafs’ Guy!