Season Predictions
When I first started the Leafs Guy Twitter, I used it in connection with a blog where I had written off an on about the Leafs and NHL in general. Writing was a bit of an outlet. A means of dealing with stressors and hardships in my life. Beginning a family as well as a career took me away from that, and it has been some time since I last wrote anything sports related. Now that my family is growing and I am a bit more established in my career and in a position to use some free down time to write, I figured what the hell! Why not start again? Bare with me, my old site which I knew how to use has completely changed and I had to essentially start from scratch. Super fun.
So! With having said all that, the season opener just merely
hours away. I took some time to write a fun little piece about my personal predictions
for the upcoming Leafs season. In this blog I touch on projected lines, my
expectations & some expected point totals.
Enjoy!
___________________________________________________________________________________
Forwards:
Projected forward lines for (at least) opening night have a
combination of speed, grit and talent. Much more aligned with the vision of
GMBT and his new coach Craig Berube. They are projected as follows:
Knies-Matthews-Marner
Domi-JT-Nylander
Patches-Holmberg-Robertson
Lorentz-Kampf-Reaves
McMann
Line 1:
We know what to expect from Matthews. He is going to score
you 50-70 goals when healthy and 40-50 when hurt. While also providing great
defense & being dynamite on the draw. It’s not out of the realm of possibility
for him to bring home another Rocket, possibly the Hart/Lindsay AND the Selke. Knies
looked like a beast in the playoffs and comes into this season knowing more of
what to expect about the long grind of the season & allegedly has put on some
muscle. Marner is also primed to have a monster season, because of course he
is. Contract year & the whole fan base essentially turning on him all but ensures
he is going to pop off this season. The BIG question is: Will it happen in the
postseason?
Line 2:
This line is something that is a bit of a question for me. I figured Domi would be back with Matthews and
Knies would be with JT. They all showed decent chemistry together, but this doesn’t
hurt to try. JT is a beast on the draw & along the boards, Willy is an
underrated back checker (he is, even if your Uncle who has watched hockey his
whole life says he isn’t) & Domi is a pass first weasel that can frustrate
the opposition & put the puck on the tape of either of his two linemates
without issue.
Line 3:
Another bitttt of a question mark, but the reward for the
risk is 100% there. Holmberg has shown he has the ability to be/become a decent
3C. Being given the ball to run with finally could help his confidence immensely.
Patches signed a nice little 1 year, 873k contract (bonuses up to 1.5 mill) to join the Leafs & is being given some of the best medical treatment in the world which could get
him back to where he needs to be to be a 15-20= goal guy again. Robby FINALLY making
the team right out of the gate and being given minutes and opportunities to
show what he can do offensively could leave him ready to be another 15-20 goal
guy. There is a very real possibility that you could get 30-40 goals out of
those 2 for less than 2 million combined.
Line 4:
What do we make of the 4th line? Personally, I
absolutely LOVE the 4th line. You have a shutdown C in Kampf and 2
absolute wrecking balls in Reavo & Lorentz. On top of that, the Passion is
unmatched. Lorentz is with his boyhood team on a 1 year, 775k contract. Reavo loves being a shit disturber
for the Leafs & the two have developed some nice chemistry that could help
him establish themselves as a nice little 4th line. Offense will be
next to nothing, but they wont be pushed around & have some nice shutdown
prowess to help out.
Extras:
McMann is on the outside looking in, at least to start. He didn’t have a great preseason and there’s a strong change at some regression, though his 12.1 shooting percentage isn’t absurdly high. He’ll get his first opportunity, I assume, in game 2. With Reaves and Patches both in the lineup, there’s going to opportunity for him to get his games in, it’s just a matter of him playing the way he did last season & capitalizing once again. No worries about him starting as the 13th forward. He wont be there long.
Dewar, who signed a 1x1.18 deal that felt like a big of a head scratcher given his stats & usage, starts on LTIR. This one sucks because I am, and will
be a Dewar truther & thought with a good training camp and a full season,
he would flourish on lines 3/4 & on the PK & live up to, or exceed his current deal. Time will tell what this injury
means for his season and his tenure as a Leaf as a whole.
Waiting in the wings as well is Nikita Grebyenkin, who
impressed in his first training camp a ton & could be the top guy called up
if/when needed. There is also: Alex Nylander, Alex Steeves, Nick Abruzzese
& Ryan Tverberg who have either had some experience in the NHL are on the
verge of pushing through.
Defense:
Rielly-Tanev
OEL-McCabe
Beniot-Timmins
Myers-Liljegren.
Line 1:
Now this is exciting. Morgan Rielly finally gets the true-blue #1 shut down RHD in Chris Tanev, albeit a bit of an older Chris Tanev who was signed to a whopping 6 years woth a total of 27 million (4.5 AAV) at the age of 34. Rielly has had his best success with playing with shutdown guys. Remember Ron Hainsey? Ilya Lyubushkin? Roman Polak? Tanev, even at age 34/35+ is, and will be, better than those guys. This primes Rielly to focus on his offense even more yet again and could lead to bigger numbers than he has had in past seasons.
Line 2:
OEL & McCabe aren’t the pair everyone expected. I think a
lot of people were expecting Benny-McCabe again. This, however, one again opens
up OEL for some extra offense knowing he is safe to do so with a very steady
partner. It also isn’t set in stone and McCabe & OEL could both switch with
the guys below them to find what fully sticks.
Line 3:
Probably needs some sever sheltering, but again the pattern
stays the same. Benoit is a nice stay and home Dman who can excel in limited
minutes and matchups. Timmins is the exact opposite. All gas, no brakes. Gas
being offense & brakes being defense. Give these two some sheltered minutes
and they could possibly cook.
Extras:
Liljegren, who has clearly fallen out of favour of the coach
already, even after signing that extension, will likely get quite a few games
in short order, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him dealt either. Hakanpaa,
if he can even get healthy, could be a nice plug in addition to this D core
when needed for overly physical games. Philippe Myers is the quiet dark horse
of this lineup. Had a good preseason and has been waiting to get back into the
NHL for a while now. Could be a nice 3rd pairing guy when needed.
There’s also Rafai who made an impression this preseason along with Niemala, Webber
& Kokkonen waiting for their opportunity as well.
Goalies:
Woll
Stolarz
Hildeby
Woll, the oft-injured hopeful long term #1 goalie for this
team projects to be the main starter this season if his health can cooperate.
He is 26 now, so his time appears to be ticking, but with Lindgreg, Ingram
& Daccord, we know that late bloomers are a very real thing that can happen
with goalies.
Stolarz is one of the big off-season additions GMBT made this year to help stabilize everything IF Woll can’t stay healthy. Big, athletic & coming off a fantastic year behind a good Dcore in Florida. I don’t expect him to be have a .925 save percentage again, but if he can put up .915+, the Leafs will be golden. Take some time to think about this... They have NOT had a collective save percentage above .914 since 2018-19. (.913 in 2022-23, boosted by Woll’s insane, 7 game .932)
I have Hildeby listed as the 3rd goalie as I feel he is the next in line to the throne and I don’t want to see Murray one single minute this season. I have said this before and I will die on this hill, I genuinely think Dennis Hildeby is the future of this club in net, and if given the opportunity this year, he'll steal the net before the Playoffs begin.
Production Predictions
for each player (in the starting opening night line up)
*stats based off 82 game average + personal feel of future usage/team dynamic*
|
Number |
Name |
GP-G-A-P / W-L-OTL, S% |
|
2 |
Simon Beniot |
60-2-8-10 |
|
8 |
Chris Tanev |
75-1-14-15 |
|
11 |
Max Domi |
82-12-40-52 |
|
16 |
Mitch Marner (A) |
80-33-75-108 |
|
18 |
Steven Lorentz |
68-10-12-22 |
|
22 |
Jake McCabe |
75-7-22-29 |
|
23 |
Matthew Knies |
82-22-20-42 |
|
25 |
Conor Timmins |
44-4-10-14 |
|
29 |
Pontus Holmberg |
72-12-12-24 |
|
34 |
Auston Matthews (C) |
78-70-44-114 |
|
35 |
Dennis Hildeby |
10-6-3-1, .922 |
|
37 |
Timothy Liljegren* |
51-3-22-25 |
|
41 |
Anthony Stolarz |
48-31-13-4, .919 |
|
44 |
Morgan Rielly (A) |
79-12-50-62 |
|
51 |
Philippe Myers |
26-2-9-11 |
|
60 |
Joseph Woll |
24-14-5-5, .920 |
|
64 |
David Kampf |
82-11-9-20 |
|
67 |
Mac Pacioretty |
62-18-16-34 |
|
74 |
Bobby McMann |
60-17-13-30 |
|
75 |
Ryan Reaves |
60-7-4-11 |
|
88 |
Willy Nylander |
82-42-60-102 |
|
89 |
Nick Robertson |
78-25-18-43 |
|
91 |
John Tavares (A) |
80-32-35-67 |
|
95 |
Oliver Ekman-Larsson |
77-10-25-35 |
*Will be Traded.
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All in all, this team is likeable, easy to cheer for and has a ton of intriguing storylines to follow throughout the year. Like always, there is a ton of “IF” this season, but there is more reason to be optimistic than in years past. The team is deeper, the goalies are improved & the D core is substantially better than it has been in quite some time. All of that, plus the likelihood of some trades to free up some cap space & some youngsters waiting for their shot, this team does have the potential to remove last season’s nightmarish memory & give the fans something to rightfully cheer for and reason to be excited & optimistic. If fans can unite for once, keep themselves from fighting with one another and undeservedly ripping on players after each and every game, this might turn out to be one of the more fun seasons in the Matthews’ Era... I hope.
*All stats gathered from www.hockey-reference.com*
*All contract information gathered from puckpedia.com*
Leafs Guy
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